I did my way-early picks back on August 2nd, and today I’m going to review them and adjust as needed. The original pick will be included and then a confirmation or revision will follow. Again, my goal is 70% against the spread for the year which is quite a stretch goal compared to my 52% result in 2014.
So here we go. One week out from B1G football with nothing but year old info and pre-season hype and chatter to guide me…
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 3rd:

Michigan @ Utah, 8:30PM on FoxSports1 – It will be the maiden voyage for the new Harbaugh-coached Wolverines and I’m sure there will be much media hype and loads of special retrospective TV packages as the fourth Michigan Head Coach in eight years shows what a true (no really, TRUE, he actually played there under Saint Bo) Michigan Man can do. Frankly, I hope he steps on his dick and falls on his face. I hate Michigan, let’s just be super-clear on that point. Anyway, the Wolverines are on the road and the Utes are a 5.5 point favorite. This makes sense as Michigan was horrid last year and nobody knows what to expect from this retooled version. The first game is always such a crap-shoot. So, I think Michigan wins narrowly simply because that’s what brand new Michigan coaches do. Oh, and the world goes ape-shit crazy with Harbaugh-Insanityand I think just a little less of the world we live in. Michigan is a 5-point dog but they win by three in OT: Utah doesn’t cover.
UPDATE: The Wolverines are still a 5-point dog and I haven’t really heard anything compelling to change my pick. Michigan is a 5-point dog but they win by three in OT: Utah doesn’t cover.

#2 TCU @ Minnesota, 9:00PM on ESPN – Oh how I hate that the Gophers are opening their season against the Frogs. I kind of wish the game was in Texas just so we could blame that big point spread on home field advantage. The Horned Frogs are going to be amazing this year, and they are likely to be one of the four playoff teams. The Gophers will be good this year and will likely be bowl-eligible. In this game, the Gophers will take a beating as Frog are going to want to make a statement by running up the score anytime that they can. Minnesota is a 14.5-point dog, but TCU wins by 24 easily covering the spread.
UPDATE: A slight change in that the Gophers are now a 14-point dog, but it’s not enough of a shift to change anything. I’d love the Gophers to stomp the Frogs, but I just can’t see it happening. Minnesota is a 14-point dog, but TCU wins by 24 easily covering the spread.
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 4TH:

#6 Michigan State @ Western Michigan, 7:00PM on ESPN-U – Hells yes I’m ready for some Spartan football! Okay, let me throttle down a bit here. The Broncos could actually be much tougher then most people think. In fact, I would even label them as dangerous. And the game is at Western so we don’t even have the Spartan Stadium advantage. I still think State takes this one, the tougher question is “do they cover?”. I pause only because there is so much newness at running back and receiver on the offense and the secondary on defense. Michigan State is favored 19 points and I think they win by 17, not covering the spread. Go GREEN!!!
UPDATE: Just a half-point shift in the spread so the Spartans are favored by 18.5. I want to take the over as I think Madre London will tear off some serious yards on the ground and DeAnthony Arnett is going to have his best game as a Spartan, but I’ll resist because they have a lot of newness to work out and the Broncos should be taken seriously. No change here. Michigan State is favored 18.5 points and I think they win by 17, not covering the spread. Go GREEN!!!

Kent State @ Illinois, 9:00PM on BTN – The Fighting Illini are not a good team. They went 6-7 last year which was quite an accomplishment. Sure, the coach is maybe a little abusive but hell, it’s football. Man-up Illini. But then again, they’re playing Kent State and it’s a home game. Assuming the National Guard doesn’t get involved, this should be a cupcake game. But bear in mind that the Illini’s biggest margin of victory in 2014 was 14, so they simply don’t hang points on anyone. Illinois is a 15-point favorite and they win by 14 not covering.
UPDATE: Merry Christmas Kent State, the Illini just fired there coach. Maybe it’s too soon but the coaching shift has not effected the line much as the Illini are a 14.5-point favorite. Gary Cubit is a solid interim coach and might even be better than Beckman anyway. The issue could be crisis and turmoil within the rank and file, but if Beckman was the shit that he seems to be, the players could be motivated by his departure. They just don’t have much to work with in terms of talent, but then again, it is Kent State and it is at home. Hmmmm. I’m going to change it up, I’ve just got a feeling that those boys come out inspired. Illinois is a 14.5-point favorite and they win by 17 just covering.
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 5TH:

#21 Stanford @ Northwestern, Noon on ESPN – Battle of the smart kids! These are two really good schools, no question there. The Cardinal is obviously the better football program, what with being ranked and all. I pulled hard for the Wildcats in 2014 and it got me nowhere. I’m more cautious this year. Northwestern is a 11.5-point dog and I think they lose by 17 at home; Stanford covers.
UPDATE: Again, just a minor shift, the Wildcats are a 12-point dog. The Wildcats let it get away from them last year and it burned me time and time again. I don’t see making a change at this time. Northwestern is a 12-point dog and I think they lose by 17 at home; Stanford covers.

Illinois State @ Iowa, Noon on BTN – The Redbirds may be the best team you’ve never heard of. Last year they lost the FBS championship by two points and they beat Iowa State (who beat Iowa, FYI) by 21, and almost beat Notre Dame. Why oh why did the Iowa decide to hire Kirk Ferentz for life at some ridiculously high salary. He’s simply not very good. The Hawkeyes flirted with being good about five or six years ago, but since then, pretty mediocre. Never a push-over, but never a contender either. I have to believe that the Hawkeyes (as part of the B1G) man-up and don’t get beat by an FBS team, but I’m really damn nervous about it. Iowa wins by 6 in a close one (no spread avail.)
UPDATE: Yep, still no spread on this game. Maybe I should pay attention to the Hawkeyes this year, some folks feel that they can finally afford to fire Ferentz this year. Probably not. No change here. Iowa wins by 6 in a close one (no spread avail.)

Richmond @ Maryland, Noon on ESPN-U – The Terps are not good. The Spiders are good in their conference and made the FBS playoffs, for what that’s worth. They seem to win in fairly close fashion, but lose by bunches and bunches of points. And I just don’t want to be part of a world where the Terapins lose to the Spiders. Maryland is favored by 20 points and I see them winning this one at home by 21.
UPDATE: Just seeing that the Terps are favored by 20 worries me, but against Richmond at home. This feels risky but I’ll stick with my original pick. Maryland is favored by 20 points and I see them winning this one at home by 21.

Norfolk State @ Rutgers, Noon on ESPN-News – Norfolk State’s team name is The Spartans. I’ll refer to them as Norfolk State if it’s okay with you. Norfolk State is a cellar dweller in the FBS and don’t present much of a threat. Rutger didn’t beat anyone by massive margins, so this is bit scary. I think the only way they can cover is if the Scarlet Knights defense scores a couple, and that’s not bloody likely. Rutgers is a 38-point favorite and they win by 24.
UPDATE: Five players are suspended for the first half of this game including a QB battling for the starting job. I believe that Coach Flood is under investigation as well. So many distractions. In the end, all this just reinforces my original pick so no change here. Rutgers is a 38-point favorite and they win by 24.

Penn State @ Temple, 3:30pm on ESPN – I wonder how many Lions fans are at this in-state game considered “home” for the Owls which is really the Philadelphia Eagles stadium? I’m thinking tons so home field advantage is pretty much not happening as most everyone in the state of Pennsylvania is a Nittany Lions fan it seems. But, can the Lions offensive line be greatly improved? Can Hack stay on his feat and out of harms way long enough to make his reads and throw some quality passes? If so, they might actually be able to score. I’m gong to say yes, Penn State gets it done, and they cover. Heck, they did it last year winning by 17! Penn State is a 7-point favorite and I think they win by 17 again.
UPDATE: The hype machine is rolling at Penn State as Hack is suddenly the best QB in the league and will probably win the Heisman. And yet nobody has them winning the B1G. Strange. Hype isn’t logical nor is it factual, so why should it have to make sense? The line has moved to 6.5 which changes nothing for me. Penn State is a 6.5-point favorite and I think they win by 17 again.

BYU @ Nebraska, 3:30 on ABC – Mike Riley is a year coach at Nebraska, and I’m not too fired up on him. I know that the fans didn’t seem to like him but Bo Pellini was a fine coach and had an amazing record. The Huskers and their supporters expect conference titles and playoff births, and well, that didn’t happen, so out goes good old Bo and his cat. Warning: Nebraska could be following in Michigan’s footsteps embarking on a coaching search every three or four years for the next 12 or so, mark my words. BYU get’s their QB back after breaking his leg last year, but is he 100%. Was he ever 100%? Neither team is exciting me but I see the Huskers as having an edge in this one. Nebraska is favored by 5-points but they win by a score just covering.
UPDATE: The line has moved a point making the Huskers a 6-point favorite. Six is trickier than five in that six is two field-goals which is pretty typical. Do they win by a score or by two FGs? I have no reason to change my pick so I’m going to stick with the Cornhuskers covering. Nebraska is favored by 6-points but they win by a score just covering.

South Illinois @ Indiana, 4:00PM on ESPN-News – The Hoosiers get their QB Nate Sudfeld back and a transfer RB to replace the amazing Coleman. I think the Hoosiers will score but can their defense help them cover the spread? Come on, Southern Illinois lost to Purdue by 22 last year, sheesh. Indiana is favored by 16 but they do the unthinkable and cover winning by 17.
UPDATE: I’m happy to see Nate Sudfeld back, the Hoosiers were lost without him. No change here for me. Indiana is favored by 16 but they do the unthinkable and cover winning by 17.

#18 Wisconsin @ #3 Alabama, 8:00PM on ABC – It’s the first game of the first year for Badger head coach Paul Cryst who doesn’t really impress me all that much. He seems to be just okay. But maybe he can finally develop a QB at Wisconsin. The Badgers are hard to get a read on. They looked like hell in the B1G Championship Game, but then won their bowl against the SEC’s Auburn. Hmmm… Gordon is gone, Stave throws picks. yikes. Oh, did I forget to mention they’re playing Bama. Who’s great idea was that? Wisconsin is a 10.5-point dog but they lose by 19 on the road.
UPDATE: The Tide is now favored by 10 which still feels light to me. Welcome to Madison Coach, now go play Bama on the road. Wow, that’s a heck of a way to debut. Can you image if the Badgers win? Not happening. Nope. No change here. Wisconsin is a 10-point dog but they lose by 19 on the road.
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 6TH:

Purdue @ Marshall, 3:00PM on FoxSports1 – Let’s just say it, Marshal is the better team and they are at home. Not good news for the Boilermakers. The Thundering Herd will win this one and why not with a coach named Doc Holliday. “Hey Purdue, I’ll be your huckleberry”. Purdue is a 7-point dog but they lose by 10.
UPDATE: Small shift, the Boilermakers are now a 7.5-point dog. I’d love for these guys to Boiler-up and win this one but rooting for them and betting on them are too different deals. No change here. Purdue is a 7.5-point dog but they lose by 10.
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 7TH:

#1 Ohio State @ Virginia Tech, 8:00PM on ESPN – The Bucks are favored by ten. It was higher but those suspensions hurt a bit. The Hokies beat the Buckeyes last year, but then was crippled by injuries from that point on it seams. Now VT thinks this is the year that their offense finally comes online. Can’t be worse than playing Wake Forest to a 0-0 tie in regulation last year. But Urban Meyers doesn’t lose to the same team twice in a row. Just doesn’t happen. And it really is that simple. Bosa or not, the Bucknuts win this one. Ohio State is favored by 10-points but wins by 21 because they want to erase last years loss in a big way.
UPDATE: The Bucks are now an 11-point favorite which really changes nothing. I think the first ever unanimous AP #1 rolls the Hokies without too much excitement. No change. Ohio State is favored by 11-points but wins by 21 because they want to erase last years loss in a big way.
We are locked and loaded. Let’s do this.
Go B!G!
